For both my first column of 2010 and my
first column of 2011, I described portfolios containing seven dividend
paying stocks each, that I considered worthy of holding for the entire
year.
My 2010 “buy and hold” portfolio averaged
a 21% return for the year compared to 13% for the overall market, at
least as measured by the S&P 500 (all returns include stock price
changes plus dividends received). Even better, six of my seven picks
recorded gains for the year.
Looking at my portfolio for 2011, as of
December 28, my seven stocks had returned 23% on average, vs. a
1% loss for the S&P 500. Again, six of my
seven picks ended the year in the positive column. Driving the
portfolio’s outperformance were B&G Foods (BGS), up 79%, and
McDonald’s (MCD), up 34%. DuPont (DD), down 4%
for the year, was the only loser.
Now, I’m pushing my luck and describing a
new list of seven stocks for 2012.
This Year's List
Once again, the list contains only dividend paying stocks. Why?
Considering the continuing global economic uncertainties, you can’t
count on a strong stock market in 2012.
Unlike most stocks where you only make
money if you can them sell for a profit, dividend stocks pay you just
for holding them. If the market drops, you still get paid while you
wait for it to recover. As the 2010 and 2011 results illustrate,
besides for the steady dividends, you still have the potential to
enjoy serious share price appreciation.
Of course, it’s not that easy. During a
market downturn, dividend stocks go down as well. Thus, you must be
prepared to hold your stocks until the market recovers. Further, you
must pick solid companies with strong business prospects that will
survive whatever the economy throws at them. Here is this year’s list.
American Software (AMSWA)
Makes software used by manufacturers and distributors to manage
back-office operations. Its software manages supply chain (materials
coming from suppliers), purchasing, warehouse, and transportation
(outbound) activities. American suffered through several years of
lackluster performance. However, sales picked up markedly in 2011. For
instance, October quarter sales rose 22% vs. year-ago. American’s
current expected dividend yield (next 12-months dividends divided by
current share price) is 3.8%.
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Golar LNG (GLNG)
Until a few years ago, natural gas could only be transported using
pipelines. Recently, however, techniques have been developed to
convert gas to a liquid, transport the liquid by ship, and then
convert it back to gas at its destination. New drilling techniques
have created a surplus of natural gas in the U.S., leading to a
vibrant and rapidly growing export market. Golar owns and operates
ships that liquefy natural gas for transportation at its departure
port, other ships for transporting the liquefied gas, and still other
ships for converting the liquefied gas back to natural gas at its
destination port. Golar is paying a 2.7% dividend yield.
H.J. Heinz (HNZ)
Makes ketchup, condiments, sauces, frozen foods, soups, beans and pasta
meals, infant food, and many other packaged food products. In North
America, Heinz is a slow grower, but overseas, Heinz is experiencing
relatively strong sales growth. Yield 3.6%.
OneBeacon Insurance Group (OB)
Because the market is so competitive, normally, insurance is not an
attractive sector for investing. However, in 2006, OneBeacon, a
relatively small player, changed its strategy from offering general
property & casualty insurance to specialized insurance for niche
markets such as oil and gas producers, car collectors, healthcare
providers, and the like. OneBeacon is generating strong growth in
those niche markets. However, since it is still in the process of
selling off its general property and casualty business, OneBeacon’s
current financial reports are not reflecting its growth potential.
Yield 5.6%.
Oneok (OKE)
Although nominally a natural gas utility serving Kansas, Oklahoma and
Texas, Oneok owns the controlling interest in Oneok Partners, which is
a major player in the gathering, processing, storage and
transportation of natural gas. In fact, most of Oneok’s profits
already comes from Oneok Partners, which, because natural gas is
replacing coal and crude oil wherever feasible, is a fast growing
business.
Vanguard Total Bond Market Index
(BND)
An exchange-traded-fund (ETF) that tracks an index representing a large
variety of medium-term government, government sponsored, and corporate
bonds. Although subject to interest and inflation risk, investment
quality bonds generally do well when stock prices dip. Thus, Vanguard
will serve as a counterbalance to the stocks making up the rest of the
portfolio. Yield 3.2%.
Verizon Communications (VZ)
The only repeat from last year’s portfolio. Besides for its wireline
business, serving customers in 24 states and D.C., Verizon owns 55% of
Verizon Wireless (Vodaphone owns the balance). In the past, Verizon
Wireless and AT&T were more or less equal competitors. However, last
month, Verizon Wireless inked deals with major cable TV companies that
will make Verizon Wireless the dominant provider in the U.S. Yield
5.2%.
Past performance doesn’t predict the
future. Thus, my 2010 and 2011 success doesn’t mean that this list
will be profitable in 2012. Do your own research. The more you know
about your stocks, the better your results.
published 1/1/12